Read an asset
A repeatable method — same logic for every asset.
The Dollar Index is showing an Intensity Divergence signal, as Asset Managers are reducing their long exposure despite the ongoing trend. This is a warning sign that momentum is fading. With a COT Index of 78%, Asset Managers are still positioned on the long side but have started to unwind their positions.
Dollar Index — illustrative data. Numbers reflect a real weekly snapshot.
Find the primary actor for this asset's market:
- Asset Managers — Forex, Indices, Bonds, Crypto
- Commercials (Swap Dealers or PMPU) — Commodities
That's the line the dashboard highlights with the PRIMARY badge.
Then look at three things in order:
- Long, Short, Net — what's their absolute position today?
- Change vs last week — are they building (|net| ↑) or reducing (|net| ↓)?
- COT Index — where does this week's net sit in the 52-week range? Stretched (>85% / <15%) or in the middle?
Combine the three to read what's actually happening:
- Profit taking — net positive, reducing, COT Index high. Bulls are stepping out, conviction draining.
- Building conviction — net building in the same direction, COT Index rising but not yet stretched. Trend is real.
- Exhaustion — COT Index stretched and primary actor reducing. First week of reduction at an extreme = the actual warning.
- Speculative trap — only the secondary actor (Leveraged Funds) is moving. Watch out: speculative-only rallies don't hold.
Open Interest = total contracts outstanding. It tells you whether the move is backed by fresh capital or just position reshuffling.
Cross OI with step 1:
- OI ↑ + net building — real conviction. Fresh money entering on the same side. Healthy trend.
- OI ↓ + net building — paper move. The opposite side is closing, not new buyers/sellers stepping in. Fragile.
- OI ↑ + net reducing — resistance. New participants entering against the existing positioning.
- OI ↓ + net reducing — exhaustion / profit taking. Everyone's stepping out.
The OI label on each asset card tells you instantly — no manual calculation needed.
The 8-combination matrix (4 net signs × 4 OI directions) is in section 4. The dashboard surfaces the matching cell directly on the detail page.
Look at the badges on the card and the detail page. If one is showing, prioritize the reading on it — it tells you something specific is happening this week, not just generic positioning.
- ↕ Flip — primary actor net changed sign. Regime shift on the asset.
- ◈ Positioning Extreme — COT Index > 85% or < 15%. Vigilance signal, not a reversal signal on its own.
- 💧 Conviction Erosion — primary actor reducing for 2+ consecutive weeks against its own bias. Trend losing steam.
- 🤝 Institutional Alignment — primary + secondary actors on the same side. Strongest confirmation signal.
- Pole-specific signals — Commercial Extremes (Commodities), Momentum Signals (Forex), Institutional Divergence / Speculative Bubble (Indices), Institutional Entry (Crypto). See section 3.
Signals appear directly on the asset card and in the Weekly Top Movers.
No badge active? That's also information — it means positioning this week is unremarkable.
Each asset detail page has a contextual analysis paragraph generated from the week's data — 4 to 6 sentences interpreting the active signals, the positioning, and the cross-actor dynamic.
Use it as a second pair of eyes on the same data: it stitches the elements together (signal + OI + COT Index + actor split) into a single read. Stay critical:
- It interprets the data on the page — it doesn't have outside knowledge of news, macro context or chart price action.
- It's a positioning read, not a trade recommendation.
- If your own reading from steps 1–3 disagrees, your own reading wins. The AI is here to assist, not to outsource.
The Dollar Index is showing an Intensity Divergence signal, as Asset Managers are reducing their long exposure despite the ongoing trend. A COT Index of 78% confirms the market is stretched — this is a momentum fade, not yet a reversal. Watch for a second consecutive week of reduction before acting.
⚠️ If your own reading from steps 1–3 disagrees, your own reading wins. The AI is here to assist, not to outsource.
AI analysis is generated by Groq on demand — requires a free API key in Settings.
Last step — a glance at the 12-week chart on the detail page. Two net curves (primary + secondary actor) plotted against the zero line, with Open Interest shown as a sub-chart below.
Net positions over 12 weeks — AM flipping from short to long while LF exits. The flip week is the highest-priority signal.
You're looking for shape, not numbers:
- Are the two curves aligned across the last weeks, or are they diverging?
- Is the move new or a continuation of a multi-week trend?
- Is OI rising with positioning, or flat/falling?
The chart confirms or invalidates the read you built from steps 1–4. If the chart picture contradicts the numbers, look again.
Weekly routine
Friday, the report is out. Here's exactly what to do.
Open the dashboard. Read the Weekly Top Movers panel at the top — flips first, then extremes, then large amplitude moves. You'll know in under two minutes which assets actually moved this week.
Your starting point every Friday — sorted by signal priority and positioning amplitude.
For each asset on your watchlist, run through the section 1 method — primary actors, Open Interest, active signals, AI analysis, net position chart. 1–2 minutes per asset, depending on how active the week was.
- For each asset, check primary actors first — is conviction building or reducing?
- Cross with Open Interest — does the capital flow confirm the move?
- Check for active signals — a badge changes the priority of the read.
- Run the AI analysis if the setup is ambiguous — one click in the detail view.
- Glance at the net position chart — is this week consistent with the trend?
- Your shortlist surfaces instantly every Friday
- Signals and data update automatically with the weekly report
Your pinned assets — updated automatically every Friday.
Write down 2–3 things that stood out: a flip on DXY, a new alignment on Gold, an extreme building on Wheat. Keeping a short weekly log makes patterns visible across months — and prevents you from re-reading the same setup twice.
Pick 2–3 correlated assets (DXY + EUR, BTC + ETH + SOL, Gold + Silver + Copper) and generate a cross-asset analysis. The point is to surface convergence or divergence between related markets — same direction = confirmation, opposite = warning.
Signal library
What triggers each signal and how to read it.
Universal signals can appear on any asset, any week — they reflect positioning behaviour that crosses all markets. The four below are always active in the detection engine regardless of asset class.
Pole-specific signals only fire on certain markets. They encode structural behaviours unique to each asset class — a Commodities signal means something different from a Crypto signal. Same logic, different context.
Momentum Signals
Commercial Extremes
Institutional vs Speculative
Institutional Entry
Technical reference
For when you want to understand the engine.
COT Index — Formula & thresholds
Formula: percentile of this week's net within the last 52 weeks of nets for the primary actor. (current − min) / (max − min) × 100.
Range: 0% (lowest net in 52 weeks) to 100% (highest).
Thresholds:
- • > 85% — stretched. For Forex / Indices / Bonds / Crypto: stretched bullish. For Commodities (inverted): top approaching.
- • < 15% — stretched low. For Forex / Indices / Bonds / Crypto: stretched bearish. For Commodities (inverted): value floor.
It's a vigilance signal, not a reversal signal. Extremes can persist for weeks. The actual reversal cue is the first week of reduction at an extreme — read with the ∆net of the current week.
Open Interest — 8 combinations
Net POSITIVE (bullish bias):
| |net| | OI | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| ↑ | ↑ | Healthy trend — fresh bullish capital, new buyers entering. |
| ↑ | ↓ | Fragile momentum — rally via short covering, no new buyers. |
| ↓ | ↑ | Resistance — sellers entering against the bullish trend. |
| ↓ | ↓ | Profit taking — bulls reducing, partial exhaustion. |
Net NEGATIVE (bearish bias):
| |net| | OI | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| ↑ | ↑ | Bearish buildup — fresh capital selling, conviction building. |
| ↑ | ↓ | Fragile bearish momentum — decline via long liquidation, no new sellers. |
| ↓ | ↑ | Short covering — bears covering, potential rebound. |
| ↓ | ↓ | Bearish exhaustion — bears reducing, potential bottom. |
Flip preemption: if the primary actor's net sign changed this week, the |net| comparison spans the flip and is invalid. The dashboard shows ↕ Regime change instead of a matrix cell.
Directional dot — trigger table
| Dot | Trigger | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Primary actor net long (or Commodities COT Index < 15%) | Bullish | |
| Primary actor net short (or Commodities COT Index > 85%) | Bearish | |
| Primary actor net sign changed vs last week | Flip — takes priority | |
| Flat / insufficient history / Commodities mid-range | Neutral |
Commodities exception: the dot is computed on COT Index inversion, not on the raw net sign — because Commercials are structurally net short and the trader's bias signal is the percentile, not the absolute direction.
AM/LF Ratio — reference table
Formula: (AM long + AM short) / (LF long + LF short). Measures who dominates the contract by gross volume.
| Ratio | Reading |
|---|---|
| ≥ 2× | AM dominates. Primary signal reliable. |
| 1× – 2× | Near parity. Conviction weakened — confirm with price action. |
| < 1× | LF dominates. Speculative-driven — warning, primary signal less reliable. |
Reference: on Forex, AM is typically 3–5× LF. A 1×–2× ratio on Forex is itself a flag — the contract is being run by speculatives, not institutionals.
Flip thresholds by market
A flip is only flagged if the net sign change is also above a minimum magnitude — otherwise tiny zero-crossings would generate noise.
| Market | Threshold (contracts) |
|---|---|
| Forex | 5,000 |
| Indices | 10,000 |
| Bonds | 20,000 |
| Commodities | 5,000 |
| Crypto | 500 |
Asset-specific context
Grains (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans): Commercials = PMPU (Producer / Merchant / Processor / User — real physical hedgers), not Swap Dealers. Seasonality matters: USDA WASDE reports and harvest cycles (Corn/Soybeans Sept–Nov, Wheat May–Jul) create temporary positioning extremes. Mean-reversion signals are weaker than on metals during these windows.
AUD = China demand + commodity sentiment proxy. AM long AUD = risk-on bias, bullish industrial commodities.
CAD = Crude Oil WTI proxy. AM long CAD + AM long Oil = aligned signal; divergence between the two = warning.
Treasury curve (10Y vs 30Y):
- • Long 10Y + Long 30Y = rate cut anticipation (parallel shift down).
- • Long 30Y + Short 10Y = curve steepening (growth / reflation view).
- • Short 30Y + Long 10Y = curve flattening (recession hedge).
- • Maturity disagreement = curve view, not a directional rates view.
JPY / CHF chart note: CME contracts are XXX/USD. AM net long JPY = USD/JPY falling. Don't confuse contract direction with displayed pair direction.
Cash & Carry — Crypto
On Bitcoin, ETH, Solana and XRP CME futures, Leveraged Funds are often net short — not because they're bearish, but because they're running a basis trade: buy spot, sell futures to capture the positive futures premium.
Practical consequences:
- • LF short ≠ bearish conviction on crypto. Ignore for direction.
- • Alignment badge restricted — only triggers on long-side AM+LF alignment. Short-side alignment is structural arbitrage, not consensus.
- • Real bullish signal: AM net long + OI surging = fresh institutional capital entering the asset.
- • Real bearish signal: AM flip net short + OI rising = institutionals actively exiting.
Crypto has limited COT history (a few years) — mean-reversion signals from COT Index are less reliable here than on Forex or Commodities. Treat AM flip as the dominant confirmation signal.